About Riftbound ROI Calculator

Our Mission

Opening booster boxes is exciting, but it's also a financial decision. Our goal is to give players the information they need to understand the expected value of opening sealed product. Whether you're a collector looking to complete your set, a player building competitive decks, or someone who just enjoys the thrill of pulling rare cards, knowing the numbers helps you make choices that align with your goals and budget.

How We Calculate Expected Value

Our calculator uses a straightforward mathematical approach to estimate what you can expect from opening a booster box:

The Formula

Step-by-Step Process

• Collect pull rate data: We track how many cards of each rarity appear in a typical booster box based on community observations and opening data.
• Fetch current market prices: We pull pricing data from TCGPlayer (for USD) and CardMarket (for EUR) to get the current average price for cards at each rarity level.
• Calculate expected value per rarity: Multiply the number of cards you'll pull at each rarity by their average market price.
• Sum all rarities: Add up the expected values for Common, Uncommon, Rare, Epic, Alt Art, Showcase, and Signed cards.
• Compare to box cost: The ROI is calculated by comparing this total expected value to the price you'd pay for a sealed box.

Data Sources

We aggregate pricing data from the two largest trading card marketplaces to ensure accuracy for players worldwide:

Our data updates regularly to reflect current market conditions. However, card prices can fluctuate rapidly, especially for newly released sets or cards that see competitive play.

Understanding ROI Metrics

Our calculator displays three key metrics to help you understand the value proposition of opening boxes:

• ROI @ MSRP: The expected return if you buy boxes at the manufacturer's suggested retail price. A positive percentage means you'd expect to pull more value than you paid; negative means you'd expect to lose money on average.
• ROI @ Break Even: The price at which opening boxes becomes exactly break-even on average. If boxes are selling for more than this price, opening them is statistically -EV (negative expected value).
• ROI @ Market Price: The expected return based on what boxes are currently selling for on the secondary market. This helps you evaluate deals you might find online or at your local game store.

Limitations & Variance

While our calculator provides useful estimates, it's important to understand its limitations:

• Statistical averages: Expected value is an average across many box openings. Individual results will vary significantly. You might open a box with multiple valuable chase cards, or you might get unlucky.
• Pull rate estimates: Our pull rates are based on community observations and may not perfectly match official rates (which are not publicly disclosed by Riot Games).
• Price volatility: Card prices change frequently based on supply, demand, competitive meta shifts, and other factors.
• Selling friction: The expected value assumes you can sell all cards at market price. In reality, there are fees, shipping costs, and the time required to list and sell cards.